ATLANTA - The race for the Republican nomination for governor in Georgia resembles a game of musical chairs. Nearly everyone expects the seven-person primary to head to an Aug. 10 runoff, since it will be tough for any candidate in the crowded field to pull the needed 50 percent plus one vote to win outright.

That means a scrappy fight to be one of the top two finishers left standing for the next round.

Conventional wisdom holds that state Insurance and Fire Safety Commissioner John Oxendine will secure one of the runoff berths. Oxendine has had 16 years in office to spread his name around the state with everything from arson investigations to insurance disputes. And he leads his GOP rivals in fundraising despite being barred from accepting donations during this year's four-month-long legislative session, according to the most recent campaign disclosure reports.

Anyone who needs proof that the race for the second runoff slot is wide open needs only to listen to the escalating rhetoric among the other three top-tier candidates.

Former Secretary of State Karen Handel, ex-U.S. Rep. Nathan Deal and former state Senate President Pro Tempore Eric Johnson have begun hurling jabs at each other over who is the most conservative, who's ethically compromised and who will say anything to get elected.

The mudslinging will only intensify as the campaign moves into the homestretch. There are less than 40 days until the July 20 primary.

Oxendine, meanwhile, has been running a rose garden strategy of sorts, avoiding the messy political fray and appearing at only a few select events. He has the most money in the race but has so far not launched an advertising offensive. Political experts expect he will blanket the airwaves with a late blitz.

And after earlier missteps and embarrassments, including an ethics investigation related to campaign contributions, Oxendine has become a disciplined campaigner, hammering home a message heavy on fiscal conservatism.

He isn't the only one. In a state where conservative muscle will matter, it's been a race to the right.

The candidates have all come out in favor on an Arizona-style law to crack down on illegal immigrants. Johnson unveiled a tough new immigration proposal that would check the citizenship of enrolling elementary and secondary school students. Deal has likewise been touting his efforts in Congress to toughen the nation's borders.

Handel has also taken a different route: staking out the ethical high ground against the "good old boys" at the state Capitol, many members of her own party. And as the only woman in the race, she's flashed the gender card arguing that she's the one to take on the "good old boy" network at the Capitol. Her campaign fired a testy missive Friday suggesting that Deal might be attacking her because he has a "problem with women in leadership."

"After all, women can do more than just fetch your coffee, Mr. Deal," the Handel release said.

State Sen. Jeff Chapman, states rights activist Ray McBerry and Wal-Mart sales associate Otis Putnam have also qualified to run in the GOP primary but have trailed badly in fundraising and have failed to gather much attention.

Georgia has voted reliably Republican in recent years. Since Sonny Perdue became the state's first Republican governor since Reconstruction in 2002 the state's crimson hue has only deepened. A Democrat hasn't won an open statewide seat in Georgia since Gov. Roy Barnes arrived in the governor's mansion in 1998.

But one wildcard this year is the anti-incumbent mood that is playing out in other races across the nation. Republicans have become the establishment party in Georgia and the electorate this year doesn't seem to be taking kindly to incumbents from either party.

State Republican Party Chairwoman Sue Everhart expressed confidence that the GOP in Georgia would survive the purge.

"Georgia is satisfied with its incumbents for the most part, so they will not be affected as they are nationally," Everhart said.

"It's going to be red, red, red (in November)."