The Feb. 18 survey of 500 likely voters had any of three Republican candidates leading Barnes versus virtual ties with them a month ago.
Republican John Oxendine, state insurance commissioner, drew 45 percent and Barnes 37 percent - a decline of 5 points from Jan. 20 when Barnes had 42 percent against Oxendine. Seven percent favored another candidate while only 10 percent were undecided compared to 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively, in the previous poll.
Likewise, Secretary of State Karen Handel had 45 percent versus Barnes' 36 percent. Congressman Nathan Deal of Gainesville led Barnes 43-37 percent. In these two match-ups, 14 percent of voters were undecided.
Most surprising was that Barnes was even against state Sen. Eric Johnson of Savannah with each at 37 percent - but 18 percent of voters were undecided with 8 percent favoring another candidate.
Not surprising: unaffiliated voters preferred Republican candidates in the Georgia governor's race. The top three GOP candidates - Oxendine, Handel and Deal - also pulled 50 percent or more of the male vote against Barnes but broke even among women.
Barnes had the highest favorable rating at 26 percent of voters surveyed but he also had the highest unfavorable rating at 22 percent, the result of his being more widely known by voters than the Republican candidates whose figures were much lower.
Oxendine: very favorable 12 percent and very unfavorable 11 percent; Handel: very favorable 13 percent and very unfavorable 7 percent; Deal very favorable 8 percent and very unfavorable 8 percent.
Rasmussen Reports said at this point in a campaign the number of people holding a strong opinion was "more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers."
As for the validity of the polling, Rasmussen cited its accuracy in previous polls - projecting Barack Obama would defeat John McCain 52-46 percent nationally (actual vote: 53-46), and in Georgia projecting McCain over Obama 52-47 (actual 52-47) and U.S. Sen. Saxby Chambliss over Jim Martin 50-46 (actual 50-47).
This month's poll confirms that Barnes faces a tough general election fight to regain the governor's office. But so far as the Democratic race is concerned, a Rasmussen poll in December showed him with a runaway 31-point lead of 48 percent to 17 percent over his nearest rival, state Attorney General Thurbert Baker. Two other candidates, former Secretary of State David Poythress and House minority leader Dubose Porter drew just 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
Meanwhile, Gov. Sonny Perdue's job approval rating took a hit in the Feb. 18 poll, dropping 7 points to 51 percent in a month. Forty-eight percent disapproved of his performance, probably the result of his legislative initiatives such as tying teacher pay to performance of students and reorganizing state government by giving future governors power to appoint Georgia's commissioners of agriculture, insurance, education and labor.
Bottom line: Democrats and incumbents beware.
dmckee9613@aol.com
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