The poll was conducted July 15 and 16, and randomly selected and surveyed 696 individuals who voted in the May 20 primary. Conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the MDJ, Fox 5 and Morris News, the poll is weighted for age, race and gender — meaning the respondents’ answers are given more or less importance in order to reflect the demographics of the voting public.
According to the poll, 45.6 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for Kingston if the election were held today, while 41.1 percent responded they would vote for Perdue; 13 percent were undecided.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.7 percent; this means Kingston’s lead could be as large as 8.2 percent or as little as 0.8 percent.
Matt Towery, CEO of InsiderAdvantage, believes Kingston has solidified his lead in all age groups except senior voters.
“One of the questions is at what level will senior voters turn out,” Towery said.
“If they turn out in a higher level from where they were in the general primary, it’s going to be a very close race. If they were to turn out at a higher level, which I don’t think is likely, then I think Mr. Perdue might have an advantage, but the way it polled, which is what we expect the model to be for the turnout, it’s going to be a close race, but Mr. Perdue is just a couple points behind right now.”
Towery said Kingston performs best in south Georgia.
“It’s going to be very interesting to see if we see these large numbers from southeast Georgia where he just cleaned up last time,” Towery said.
“If those numbers track high enough, and we have a tepid turnout, say, in Cobb and Fulton, then obviously Kingston will win. If for some reason the metro area and middle Georgia were to turn out a little bit stronger, then Perdue would have a better chance because he polls better in those areas.”
Among white respondents, 46.4 percent said they would vote for Kingston, compared to 40.6 percent who said they would vote for Perdue.
Among black respondents, 66.7 percent chose Perdue, compared to 33.3 percent who chose Kingston.
Only 6 Hispanic voters were surveyed; three said they would vote for Kingston, two for Perdue, and one was undecided.
Male respondents favored Kingston: 53.4 percent said they would vote for him compared to 37.5 for Perdue, with 9.1 percent undecided. Female respondents, however, preferred Perdue: 44.2 percent chose him compared to 39.4 percent who chose Kingston, with 16.4 percent undecided.
Among respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, 50.5 percent said they would vote for Kingston, 37.8 percent chose Perdue and 11.7 percent were undecided. Perdue received more votes from those identifying as Democrats — 57.1 percent compared to Kingston’s 23.8 percent, with 19 percent undecided — and those identifying as independents — 47.4 percent compared to Kingston’s 37 percent, with 15.6 percent undecided.
Younger respondents tended to favor Kingston: two-thirds of those between the ages of 18 and 29 picked him over Perdue.
As the respondents get older, though, Perdue closes the gap — Kingston leads by 8.8 percent among the 30-44 age group and 7.7 percent in the 45-64 age group. Among respondents aged 65 and older, however, Perdue leads Kingston by 1.6 percent.
The runoff election is Tuesday.