Predictions of Romney victory set stage for final debate
by Don McKee
October 22, 2012 01:18 AM | 8697 views | 1 1 comments | 16 16 recommendations | email to a friend | print
Don McKee
Don McKee
On the day of the final presidential debate between President Obama and Mitt Romney, this is a good time to look at some predictions of who will win, assuming that the debate makes no big difference.

“I think Mitt Romney is going to win this election,” predicted that seasoned political veteran Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, presidential candidate and now host of his own Fox TV show. In his Friday night prediction on Fox News, he said the election would be close.

Two other prognosticators followed Huckabee with predictions of a Romney victory.

“It’s Reagan-Carter all over again,” said Wayne Allyn Root, former Libertarian vice presidential nominee, author and oddsmaker. He said Romney will win in a landslide by 5 to 7 points in the popular vote and by 100 to 120 electoral votes, while carrying all the battleground states.

Next came a prediction of a Romney landslide with 330 electoral votes – 60 more than the requisite 270 – according to a computer model of economic indicators from all 50 states, said Professor Kenneth Bickers of Colorado University-Boulder. He and Professor Michael Berry of CU-Denver created the model that has correctly forecast the winner of every presidential election since 1980. Bickers said on Fox News that the model indicates Romney will carry Colorado and most battleground states. Current polling trendlines show this, he said.

In previous comments, Root has said the polls “are badly skewed towards Democrats. Quite simply, they are over-polling Democratic voters and assuming a turnout that looks like 2008 when record numbers for Democrats came out of Obama….My contention is a one point Romney lead in those Democrat-skewed polls is really a comfortable 5 to 7 point Romney lead on election day.”

Root says the news media are “ignoring signs of mass revulsion toward President Obama,” pointing out that even in Cook County (Chicago), Ill., a little more than a week ago Romney led among independents by 43-31 and among white by 53-40. Root also gives weight to Republican control of a majority of governorships in favor of Romney.

Another plus for Romney, says Root, is that after the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that lean Republican, including Georgia, Florida, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, South Carolina and Utah. And Romney will be able to outspend Obama in the last two weeks of the campaign, making a huge difference, Root says.

Christians will turn out in record numbers, Root predicts, asserting: “Obama has offended Christians again and again.” In the last election, he said, 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. “They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian president in U.S. history,” Root said, likening it to the turnout in support of Chick-fil-A after a top official spoke out in favor of traditional marriage and incurred protests from proponents of same-sex marriage.

Root says there are two other factors that favor Romney: high enthusiasm among supporters and political history that proves the majority of undecided voters break for the challenger.
Comments-icon Post a Comment
Marshall Feuer
October 22, 2012
Probabilistically speaking. It looks like Romney will win with a

margin of 5-7 points. Gallup was the first to catch this trend.

I call it "mass revulsion" for Obama. That term is appropriate, no doubt. The Chicago mob will try anything to avoid the inevitable outcome.acts
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