But the odds of fat profits aren’t looking as good this time, and seem to be getting worse.
Stocks rose sharply before the Fed chairman announced his plans Sept. 13 instead of falling, as they did before the two previous efforts, suggesting less room for gains now.
Meanwhile, the world economy is slowing and Wall Street analysts are cutting estimates for future corporate profits. They expect them to fall this quarter from a year earlier, the first drop since just after the recession ended Three years ago.
“The market seems like it’s climbing on central bank intervention rather than fundamentals,” says Gary Flam, chief stock manager at Bel Air Investment Advisors. “I’m not a buyer right now.”
The outlook for other risky assets like high-yield bonds is darkening, too.
The highly indebted companies that issue these bonds, popularly known as junk bonds, usually offer fat interest payments to compensate investors for the risk that the companies will default.
Not now. In response to previous Fed stimulus plans, investors have poured money into these bonds, driving prices up and yields, which move in the opposite direction, down to 6 percent, the lowest on record. In the boom years before the recession, the lowest yield was more than two points higher.